Reading notes

The Commerce Department announces very good growth during the previous quarter. Many observers declare the economy’s troubles over. And the administration’s supporters claim that the economy’s turnaround validates its policies. …

Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley has suggested, plausibly, that much of last quarter’s consumer splurge was “borrowed” from the future: consumers took advantage of low-interest financing, cash from home refinancing and tax rebate checks to accelerate purchases they would otherwise have made later. If he’s right, we’ll see below-normal purchases and slower growth in the months ahead. …

It would be quite a trick to run the biggest budget deficit in the history of the planet, and still end a presidential term with fewer jobs than when you started. And despite yesterday’s good news, that’s a trick President Bush still seems likely to pull off.

I’d like yesterday’s GDP figure to be good news as much as anybody. But something’s fishy about it. Something’s not kosher. I noticed on NPR’s Marketplace yesterday that their man-in-the-street interviews about it tended to concur: (paraphrasing) “As long as I and lots of my friends are unemployed and can’t find a job, GDP don’t mean sh*t.”

[via Daily Kos]